I got an intriguing email from a fellow Astros fan today:

RR15: Why weren’t the Astros buyers at the trade deadline?  They’ve been playing over .500 since late May, they’re still within conceivable striking distance from the top of the division, and there’s a pretty good team out there available for bargain prices: Saltalamacchia, Lopez, Ludwick, Maholm, Church, Edwin Jackson, Tejada, and Haren, just to name a few.

There’s a lot here to digest, so let me try to break it down piece-by-piece.

Last year, Houston fans were quick to point to hitting coach Sean Berry and label him as one of the biggest reasons why the Astros weren’t successful.  This year, as the offensive woes intensified, many fans’ wish came true.  Berry was let go this morning and replaced by former superstar first baseman Jeff Bagwell.

Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game has no equal, at least as far as I’m concerned.  Sure, we could complain about fan voting, and I certainly have.  The very fact that voting is allowed as early as April should give you some indication that statistics play very little part in the choice of fans.

The MLB postseason is underway.  For the third straight season, there has been a 163rd game.  For the second straight season, it has involved the Minnesota Twins.  Unlike last year, however, the Twins prevailed over the Tigers to earn a spot in the playoffs.

To those not paying attention, this puts the Twins with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, and Philadelphia Phillies.

So let’s take a very quick glance and see what pops up at us, shall we?

Two things happened tonight in Houston, Texas: The Astros won their final home game of the season, and the Cincinnati Reds lost their 82nd game of the year.

The loss ensures that the Reds will finish below .500 for the ninth straight year, and they accomplished that by taking one huge step backwards.  Many sources had the Reds putting together a breakout campaign this season, finishing in the top half of the division.  Some writers (myself included) thought that they would challenge Chicago for the division title.

Boy, were we wrong.  Among Cincinnati players who appeared in at least 80 games with the team, only one – 1B Joey Votto – has batted over .300 this season.  Batting average may be a much-overrated statistic, but in this case it’s indicative of their overall offensive performance.  The team runner-up in batting average, 2B Brandon Phillips, is hitting just .279.  Not bad, but not exactly what you look for from someone they depended on being a marquee player this season.

Only three Reds in the 80+ games group had OBPs over .350 – Votto, catcher Ryan Hanigan, and OF Chris Dickerson.

The HAVOC pitching staff (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Owings, and Cueto) floundered, as well.  Arroyo has been the only one to toss at least 200 innings, and so far is also the only one with an ERA under 4.00 or a WHIP under 1.300. 

And yet these Reds lead our Astros in the standings.  If only all of our games were at Minute Maid Park, where we posted a 44-37 (.543) record. 

The news isn’t all bad for the Astros.  First, Cecil Cooper is gone and the search for his replacement must be on, if only unofficially.  Props to Alyson Footer for mentioning Tim Bogar as a potential replacement – Tim Bogar – who I first mentioned as a candidate back on April 20th.

Second, we got surprisingly good years out of Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada.  Bourn has improved his OBP this season by about eighty points, which is incredible.  He’s also stolen 59 bases, easily the most in the National League.  Tejada lived up to billing by grounding into twenty-nine double plays, leading the NL so far in that category.

But he also proved amazingly durable – particularly since Cecil Cooper was so convinced that he’d give Miguel extra time off that he completely dismissed Matt Kata in Spring Training because Kata had never played shortstop before.  Well, Kata’s still on the team and Cooper isn’t.

Tejada is currently in the NL’s top ten in AB/SO (12.563), batting average (.308), at-bats (603), hits (186), doubles (leads the league with 44), singles (128), and HBP (11). 

I’m going to be blogging a bit through the remainder of the season, discussing things I’ve learned and mistakes I’ve made in my first season as an MLBlogger.  I was reminded of the grind that the season truly is – there were moments when I was posting 2 or 3 times a day, down to the very end, where I’ve been lucky to get in one or two posts a month.  I entered the mass of unemployment, got another job, moved across town, and began working on a very big documentary project that, while fulfilling a lifetime dream, is also more or less a second job.

There will be an in-depth, position-by-position look at the Astros and their prospects.  There will be an evaluation of what I predicted correctly – and what I predicted incorrectly – as well as a look at how I can improve.

When the 2010 season starts, I’ll be preparing to head out on old Route 66, and I won’t have a lot of time to write, but I’ve met some fantastic people doing this blog, and I intend to continue it, if only part-time, because I value the conversations and friendships that I’ve developed with many of my readers.

It’s hard to believe it’s only been eight months since I decided to start blogging because I was tired of having to explain the Rule 4 draft over and over.  I’ve been tested, and sometimes I succeeded.  More often, I’ve failed.  And that is what baseball is all about.  Learning from failure.  I’ve loved every minute of it so far, and I’d like to thank you all for coming along on the ride.

Sure, the Astros’ entire organization – from Rookie Ball to the Major Leagues – has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Sure, the big league team is in the middle of an eight-game skid that not only has buried them behind the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers, but may in fact allow the Cincinnati Reds to catch up.

Sure, we’re lousy, but there’s reason to be optimistic for next year, Astros fans: Cecil Cooper has been fired.

Now, everyone knows I was never Cecil Cooper’s biggest fan.  In fact, I thought he was laughably bad as a manager, and proved that he could handle neither young nor veteran players.  Decisions he made hurt the Astros in nearly every single game – whether it was wasting outs on maddening sacrifice hits, burning through the bullpen, or refusing to give a player a chance to play.

It may be too much to hope that I’ll get my way entirely, with Tim Bogar returning to Houston as a manager, but my fingers will remain firmly crossed.  No matter what happens, it’s great to have Cecil gone.  And long, long overdue.

Two straight series wins against the Marlins and the Diamondbacks, and the Astros are still hanging around in the standings – 10 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central; 9 games behind the Rockies for the NL Wild Card.

38 games left to play, beginning tomorrow with a 9-game roadtrip against the Cardinals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks.  Two series left against the Phillies.  It could be shaping up to be the exact worst-case scenario: The Astros playing hard until the final out of the season, getting within sniffing distance but missing the playoffs entirely.

Without a playoff berth, a good season will continue to hurt this team in subsequent drafts.  The longer they stay competitive, the louder the cries for high-priced free agents.  If this team is going to blow itself up and rebuild, it shouldn’t ideally come after a season where they compete until the very end. 

And, as much as I hate to side with Richard Justice, let’s say the Astros miss the playoffs by six games: Is it unfair to say that manager Cecil Cooper has cost the Astros at least that many games?

A Few Moves That Won’t Get Us Over The Hump

The Houston Astros signed Armando Benitez to a minor league contract.  Benitez had been pitching with the Newark Bears of the independent Atlantic League.  Since 1994, he’s pitched for the Orioles, Mets, Mariners, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, and Blue Jays.  He last pitched in Toronto in 8 games during the 2008 season, during which time he was 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, but a 0.947 WHIP.

Benitez is a two-time All-Star with a career 3.13 ERA and 1.217 WHIP.  It’s doubtful that he’ll get the Astros over the hump, but it’s very possible he’s still got something left in the tank, even at “thirty-six” Dominican years old.

You probably don’t know, but the film Open Road is set to release this weekend, with Justin Timberlake as a baseball player for none other than our Double-A Texas League affiliate, the Corpus Christi Hooks. 

He won’t help the Hooks much, as it turns out, as they now stand dangerously close to elimination from the playoffs.  The Round Rock Express, Greeneville Astros, and DSL Astros have already been eliminated.

Former Astros pitcher Russ Ortiz was inked to a deal by the Colorado Rockies.  Turns out he may make the playoffs, after all – and have something to say about the Astros getting there in the process.  The Rockies also picked up Jason Giambi.

Will Lancaster Make The Playoffs?

The California League Lancaster Jethawks are trying like mad to get into the playoffs in their first year as an Astros affiliate, but could use a little help from their friends.  Four games behind the High Desert Mavericks (SEA), the Jethawks won yesterday – but so did High Desert, who has won four in a row.  Hot on the Jethawks’ back is the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes – winners of three straight, and just a game behind Lancaster in the standings.

Lancaster is the only Astros affiliate with any realistic shot of making the playoffs.

The Lexington Legends snapped their 11-game losing streak, but it’s likely a case of too little, too late, as they now stand at the very bottom of the South Atlantic League, 13.5 games out of first place.

Eric Bruntlett

No doubt you’ve heard by now, but former Astros shortstop Eric Bruntlett made history yesterday, becoming just the second player in Major League Baseball to get the last three outs of a game with an unassisted triple play.  Bruntlett – along with Brad Lidge – was traded to the Phillies late in 2007 for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo, who was turned around and sent to the Orioles as one of the five players traded for Miguel Tejada.

Congratulations, Eric.

What Happened Was…

Round Rock Express (AAA) – Polin Trinidad is having a little trouble adjusting to the Pacific Coast League, and his struggles were front and center during yesterday’s 6-1 loss to the Memphis Redbirds (STL).  2B Jose Vallejo – one of the players acquired in the Ivan Rodriguez trade – was 2-for-4 with 2 doubles, and scored the only Express run of the game.  A tip of the cap to OF Yordany Ramirez, with an outfield assist at home from center field.

Corpus Christi Hooks (AA) – It’s not a good omen with the big leaguers going into a series against the Cardinals when their minor league teams keep beating ours.  The Hooks dropped a 3-1 decision to the Springfield Cardinals (AA) yesterday, with OF Andrew Locke collecting two of the Hooks’ only 3 hits.  The third was a solo home run by 2B/3B Felix “No Relation” Molina. 

Lancaster Jethawks (A+) – Five runs in the first inning helped the Jethawks put away the Visalia Oaks Rawhide (ARI), 6-4.  LF/C Koby Clemens was 2-for-4 to raise his season line to .339/.415/.607 between Corpus Christi and Lancaster.  SS Marcos Cabral went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run, and 3 RBI.  Leandro Cespedes struck out 6 in 5.2 innings; Fernando Abad did him one better, striking out 5 in 3.1 innings, walking just one, and allowing only two hits and no runs to help keep the Jethawks in the playoff race.

Lexington Legends (A) – It wasn’t always such a surprise when Lexington won a game, but after eleven straight losses, a 5-2 victory over the Greensboro Grasshoppers (FLA), who were no doubt looking ahead to tonight’s game, where they will be hosting Waffle Appreciation Night.  That’s right.  Waffles.  No word on whether or not Richard Justice will be the guest of honor.  Kyle Greenwalt earned the win, allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and no walks through 6 innings.  Brian Pellegrini and Brandon Wikoff each had two hits – unspurprisingly, as they’ve been about the only offensive highlights for Lexington all season.

Tri-City ValleyCats (A-) – It was a tight game for four innings, but runs by the Vermont Lake Monsters (WSN) in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings did the ValleyCats in as they fell, 3-0, in Game 1 of the doubleheader.  Losses don’t get a lot harder-luck than the one Wander Alvino suffered, giving up just one hit, one earned run, and three hits with 5 strikeouts in as many innings. 

Game two ended with a postponement.  The Monsters led in the middle of the third, 3-0.

Greeneville Astros (R) – Tied at 1-1 entering the sixth inning, the Astros’ game against the Elizabethton Twins (MIN) looked like it might be a classic pitchers’ duel.  Carlos Quevedo was looking very good on the mound, as was his counterpart, Edgar Ibarra.  By the end of the sixth, though, things had changed drastically.  Quevedo gave up a total of five runs, two of them earned, while Ibarra struck out ten in seven innings of work to earn the win in the 9-1 game.  Astros manager Rodney Linares was ejected by the home plate umpire; one wonders if we wouldn’t have been better off getting 3B Jonathan Meyer, C Carlos Mojica, and 2B Miguel Arrendall ejected instead.  It would have saved us the three errors they combined to make, at least.

GCL Astros (R) – The GCL Astros had a scheduled day off, in sharp contrast to all of the unscheduled days off they’ve been having lately.

DSL Astros (R) – The DSL Astros’ season is over.  They will not make the playoffs.  Steroids all around.

It was only a third of an inning, but 6’5″ 220 lb. reliever Matthew Nevarez threw in his first game within the Astros organization yesterday, allowing a hit and recording a strikeout – the last out the Lexington Legends would record in their 7-5 loss to the Kannapolis Intimidators (CWS).

Along with Round Rock second baseman Jose Vallejo, Nevarez was a part of the trade that sent Ivan Rodriguez to Texas.

The most puzzling part of this trade to me, quite honestly, is watching the reactions of Houston fans.  I really and truly don’t understand how anyone can think that this trade was a bad move.  Pudge had a .280 on-base percentage.  That means that when he went to the plate, there was a 28% chance that he’d get on base via either a hit, a walk, or by getting hit by a pitch.

That’s not bad; that’s terrible.  Last season, Michael Bourn was heavily maligned for his failures at the plate.  He had a .288 on-base percentage.  Jose Cruz, Jr. was ridden out of town on a rail after posting a .283.  The Pirates’ Jason Jaramillo had the next-lowest OBP for a starting NL Central catcher this season, and that was 37 points higher – .317.

The fact that we were able to get anything for Rodriguez is a testament to our front office.  We got two young players, at least one of whom has some upside; and potentially a third.

That, dear friends, is a win.

Houston’s Dallas

“There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours
sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a
city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on
her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.”
–Coach Bobby Finstock, Teen Wolf

It might not be wise to play cards with Dallas Keuchel, the Astros’ 7th-round pick in this year’s draft, but it’s not a bad idea to play baseball with him.  Keuchel is a 6’3″ left-hander out of the University of Arkansas – Fayetteville, and so far he’s been a very pleasant surprise in his tenure for the Tri-City ValleyCats.

1-2 in his first 8 games (all but one of them starts), he boasts a 1.94 ERA and a striking 0.935 WHIP.  He ‘s allowed just 3 walks and struck out 30 batters in 41.2 innings, and opposing hitters are .228 against him.  If he can keep this up, he’s going to be very exciting to watch.

Back in the Sadler Again
On August 18, the Astros signed Billy Sadler, a free agent pitcher released by the San Francisco Giants on August 10.  Sadler has been with Triple-A Fresno for all of 2009, but has spent parts of two seasons in the big leagues.  In 2007, he broke camp with the Giants, but struggled with his control and earned a demotion.  In 2008, he was called up late to replace Brad Hennessey. 

With a fastball in the low nineties and a curveball he throws to keep hitters off-balance, Sadler has looked very good at times.  He seems to have added a slider and a split-finger, and still throws his changeup for strikes.

He’ll be 28 soon, so don’t expect him to get heaps better, but this is a very nice low-risk signing by the Astros, and he could provide depth late into the season.  See below for details of his first start for the GCL Astros.

What Happened Was…

Round Rock Express (AAA) – An 8-2 loss to the Las Vegas 51s (TOR) was the 4th loss by the Express in their last 5 games.  It stands to reason that their season made a downturn when pitchers Bud Norris and Yorman Bazardo were called up, but this team has gone from bad to worse.  Their Elimination # now stands at 3, and the only way that can feel good is if they win tonight, effectively knocking the 51s out of the playoffs first.  1B Mark Saccomanno continued his hot second half with a home run, but also showed himself to be the butcher in the field he’s always been with an error.  SS Tommy Manzella was 1-for-2 with 2 walks and 2 stolen bases.  Josh Muecke earned a hard-luck loss, giving up 5 runs in 5.2 innings – none of them earned.  Chris Sampson gave up three runs of his own in an inning of work.  His ERA since being demoted to Round Rock now stands at 22.50.

Corpus Christi Hooks (AA) – It took 12 innings for the Arkansas Travelers (LAA) to score their second run of the night to beat the Corpus Christi Hooks 2-1.  Kenny Baugh pitched well, though not dominantly, earning no strikeouts in 6 innings of work, allowing a single run on 3 hits.  Daniel Meszaros was brilliant, allowing no runs and two hits in three innings of work, with 6 strikeouts.  3B Aaron Boone was 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts.  Several Hooks had decent nights at the plate, despite the lack of runs.  SS Wladimir Sutil was 2-for-4; DH/OF Andrew Locke and C Jason Castro were 2-for-5.

Lancaster Jethawks (A+) – The Jethawks put together 4 runs in the top of the second, cruising to a 5-2 victory over the Lake Elsinore Storm (SDP).  The win keeps them three games behind the High Desert Mavericks (SEA) for the California League South Division.  The victory came in complete-game fashion for Christopher Salamida, who struck out 5 and allowed 4 hits.  Both runs came on a James Darnell home run in the first inning.  C Koby Clemens was 3-for-4, a home run away from a cycle; OF T.J. Steele was 2-for-3 to bring his season line up to .353/.393/.578.

Lexington Legends (A) – Despite stellar pitching from Ross Seaton, Jordan Lyles, and Brad Dydalewicz this season, the Legends’ offense simply hasn’t been able to make anything happen.  A 7-5 loss to the Kannapolis Intimidators (CWS) yesterday keeps them squarely in the basement of the Sally North Division.  Kyle Godfrey, who’s been fairly outstanding since being promoted from Tri-City, earned the loss with a rare bad outing, striking out 2 and giving up 2 runs on 2 hits in 1.2 innings.  His ERA for the season “balloons” to 2.02.  8 of Lexington’s 9 starters combined for 10 hits, with only OF Steve Brown going hitless.

Tri-City ValleyCats (A-) – Dallas Keuchel earned his first win yesterday, giving up 2 runs in 5 innings against the Staten Island Yankees (NYY).  He picked up a little help from his friends, including 2B Jose Altuve, who was 1-for-3 at the plate with a walk, three stolen bases, and three runs scored.  The ValleyCats eked out 7 runs on 8 hits, only two of them for extra bases: Doubles by 3B Erik Castro and DH/3B Jhonny Medrano.  At 20-37, the ValleyCats are dead last not just in the Stedler Division, but in the entire New York-Penn League.  But they’re getting a couple of nice individual performances that are certainly encouraging.

Greeneville Astros (R) – There’s very little in baseball more exciting than the “Battle of the ‘villes.”  I just made that up, but Greeneville and the Danville Braves (ATL) do seem to have their share of very good games against one another, and yesterday’s 3-2 Danville win was no exception.  The Astros’ hitters were absolutely shut down by the Braves’ staff (when have I heard that before?), scoring two unearned runs on just two hits.  Murillo Gouvea earned the loss, striking out 4 in 3 relief innings, giving up just one hit and one unearned loss.  First-round pick Jiovanni Mier was 0-for-2 with 2 walks earned.

GCL Astros (R) – While the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez was helping the big leaguers over the Marlins for a big series win, the teams’ Gulf Coast League affiliates battled it out in decidedly-different fashion, as the Marlins downed the Astros, 8-1.   The Astros, already eliminated from the postseason, had as many errors as hits (2).  Only DH/C Jose Lopez managed to get on base more than once, going 1-for-2 with a walk, as a quartet of Marlins farmhands combined for the two-hit victory.  Astros starter Billy Sadler, who the Astros signed as a free agent two days ago, struck out the side in the first inning and left the game.