2012/13 Offseason: Non-Tender Candidates – Pitchers
Working again off of Tim Dierkes’ list of possible non-tender candidates, I took a look at possibilities that may arise after the November 30th deadline.
Four guys jump out at me as possible additions to the starting rotation in Houston:
1. Phillip Humber – Humber was a part-time starter for the White Sox last year, after serving as a full-time starter in 2011. These are his only two seasons with any real sample size, but they might as well be two different pitchers. The 2012 version of Humber struck out more batters (7.50 K/9 vs. 6.40), but he also walked more (3.88 BB/9 vs. 2.26) and gave up way more home runs (2.03 HR/9 vs. 0.77). His groundball rate dropped precipitously, from 47.1% to 34.9%, and more of the flyballs he gave up left the park (16.5% in 2012; 7.7% in 2011). That’s a bad combination. The 2011 version of Humber is very good – 3.6 fWAR over 163 innings. The 2012 version is very bad – -0.2 fWAR over 102 innings. There doesn’t appear to have been an injury, as his velocity didn’t change at all, but in 2011 he started throwing more of his low-90s fastballs, cut his changeup use in half, and essentially substituted his slider for his curveball, which was arguably his best pitch. I don’t know the reason for the change, but if he can go back to being closer to the 2011 version, relying on his offspeed stuff, I have a good feeling he can have a good season.
2. John Lannan – Prior to 2012, Lannan put together 1.0+ fWAR in 4 straight seasons, despite a FIP over 4. What I like about him for Houston is his ability to induce grounders – his career GB% is 53.0 – and his ability to limit home runs (0.88 HR/9 over his career). He strikes out about as many guys as you’d expect someone with a fastball in the high 80s to strike out (4.71/9), and he walks way too many to go with it (3.4/9), but I still think he’s an improvement over the current tail end of the rotation.
3. Charlie Morton – Solving the puzzle of Charlie Morton is a bit tricky. He’s another groundball pitcher (career 53.0%) who doesn’t give up a lot of home runs (0.80/9). In many regards, he and Lannan are the same pitcher, except that Lannan is a lefty and a year younger. But they both have way too few strikeouts and way too many walks, but they limit fly balls and home runs, which is always going to play in MMP. Morton has never approached 200 innings in the majors, which is a concern. 2011 was the only season he topped 100 innings, as a matter of fact (171.2). Morton’s a sinkerball/two-seamer guy who struggles against lefties (read Dave Cameron’s article on his platoon splits in 2011), which limits him a great deal.
4. Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey was on the verge of becoming a pretty darn good starter when he went down in 2012, after just three starts. He had season-ending Tommy John surgery on April 30, which will certainly raise a few eyebrows, but this is still a guy who posted 3.0 fWAR in 2008 and 2.8 in 2010. If he can make any sort of a comeback, he could be the steal of the offseason for some lucky team. If you consider the 12-18 month “recovery period” finite, he could still come in and make an impact this season.
1. Scott Atchison – I’m a little surprised to see Atchison’s name on this list, as he did manage to accumulate 1.0 fWAR last season. It was also his second-straight season with a FIP under 3 and a xFIP under 4. He’s not the strikeout artist he was when he first came up, but still punched out 6.31 per 9 IP while walking just 1.58/9. He’s given up just 2 home runs over the past two seasons (81.2 innings) with Boston, as well. If he gets non-tendered, I don’t expect that the Astros would be the only team on the phone with him, but he’d definitely be a worthy free agent target.
2. Kameron Loe – Astros fans aren’t strangers to Loe, who’s spent the last three seasons in Milwaukee, and was with the Rangers before that. He’s another guy who doesn’t get many strikeouts and who gives up too many walks, but he’s got a career 56.7% groundball rate, and has allowed fewer than 1 home run per nine innings pitched over his career, despite playing parts of 5 seasons in Arlington. Last year wasn’t a great year for him, but he still managed to be replacement-level. He doesn’t exactly belong on this list, as he is already a free agent after refusing an assignment to Triple-A.
3. Jose Veras – Veras is a big boy at 6’6″, 235 lbs. He’s pitched the last three seasons for three different organizations (Florida, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee). He’s also put together two straight 0.5 fWAR seasons, and has struck out 9.39 batters per 9 IP in his career. Yes, he walks a lot of guys (4.92/9), but he doesn’t give up home runs, which if you hadn’t noticed, is a skill I personally value quite a lot, especially for Minute Maid Park. FIP likes him; xFIP likes him more – he’s been under 4 for the past 3 years. Though he’s lost velocity on his fastball over the past several years, it still sits right around 94, and he offsets it with a nice curveball.